The current US economic data shows positive developments that strengthen market sentiment after a setback the previous day and temporarily push concerns about the debt situation into the background. This dynamism can also impact the German financial market, especially investor sentiment and price developments in index funds and stocks.
US Economic Data: Overview
- Economic Index: In May 2025, the overall index for assessing the US economy rose to -17.9 points. After months of increasing economic assessments, this still indicates some skepticism; however, compared to previous values, there is a stabilization.
- Labor Market Data: For Thursday, May 22, 2025, initial jobless claims are projected to be 230,000 (previously: 229,000), signaling a stable labor market.
- Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): The PMI for services is expected to be 50.8 (previously: 50.8), while the PMI for manufacturing is slightly below the growth threshold at an expected 49.8 (previously: 50.2). This overall shows a stable service sector.
- Real Estate Market: The sales of existing homes in April are expected to increase by +2.5% compared to the previous month – a significant rise after a decrease of -5.9% in the previous month.
Impact on Market Sentiment
The positive signals from the US have already led to a revival in the stock markets:
- US Stock Markets: The S&P 500 was able to recover its losses from the previous day. Particularly, technology stocks benefited from solid forecasts from individual companies like Cisco Systems.
- Bond Markets: Prices of US government bonds have risen; money markets reflect increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Fed.
- Inflation Signals: Producer prices have unexpectedly declined sharply – the largest drop in five years – indicating that companies can absorb some of the burdens from higher tariffs, leading to a decrease in inflationary pressure.
Transmission Effects to Germany
Positive developments in the US often have a direct or indirect positive effect on European markets:
- Investor Psychology: Improved sentiment in the US usually leads to a more risk-tolerant attitude among German investors as well.
- Index Funds & Stock Price Development: Since many German index funds are internationally diversified and particularly include US equities, they can benefit directly.
- Capital Flows & Risk Appetite: Positive data from overseas often boosts confidence in global markets and leads to capital inflows into Europe as well.
Summary
The latest US economic data shows overall positive trends despite slight fluctuations in the labor market, as well as in the service and real estate sectors. This has temporarily overshadowed concerns about the debt situation and fosters optimism in financial markets – both in the US and potentially in Germany among index fund and stock investors.