The Bitcoin four-year cycle, historically shaped by the halving event, in which the block rewards for miners are halved approximately every four years, has significantly determined the price development of Bitcoin. This event traditionally led to a supply shortage and subsequently usually triggered a bull market that lasted from 6 to 18 months and often generated new all-time highs. Typically, this was followed by a bear market with severe price declines of 70 to 85% over about a year.
End of the Classic Four-Year Cycle?
A prominent crypto expert, Michaël van de Poppe, now predicts the end of this classic four-year cycle. He argues that the market has changed significantly and that the previous patterns no longer hold unrestricted validity. This represents a potential departure from previous cyclical expectations for investors.
In parallel, there are assessments like that of the analyst Decode, who, despite these changes, sees a continuing bull run—possibly even beyond October 2025 into 2026. His forecast is based on a macro oscillator to identify cyclical patterns and on a phase of strong market adoption and sustainable demand. He does warn of short-term setbacks, but overall expects a longer bullish phase with new highs.
Altcoin Season in Sight?
From the perspective of some traders such as “Crypto Beast,” the market dynamics could also shift in favor of altcoins. Following a possible peak in Bitcoin market dominance, an altcoin season is anticipated, during which alternative cryptocurrencies might perform better against Bitcoin. This assessment is based on bearish divergences in Bitcoin dominance indicators and historical patterns during such phases. Nevertheless, some investors plan to re-enter Bitcoin after an altcoin rally in the long term.
Summary:
- The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin based on halving may have reached its end according to expert opinion; earlier patterns are no longer guaranteed to be valid.
- Despite the potential end of the cycle, an extended bullish scenario for Bitcoin is projected until at least the end of 2025 or even into 2026.
- The market development could shift in favor of altcoins; an so-called altcoin season is expected, which offers opportunities for investors but also carries risks.
- For investors, this means an increased relevance of a flexible investment approach considering changed market structures instead of rigid cyclical expectations.
These developments are particularly important for cryptocurrency investors given the historical significance of halving as a price driver, as well as current shifts in the market environment.