Calendar week 22 of the year 2025 was particularly significant for the gold market: it brought both uncertainties and a renewed boost of confidence for investors. The developments were analyzed against the backdrop of extreme price fluctuations and technical market signals, with a focus on the performance of leading gold stocks like Barrick, Newmont, Franco Nevada, and Kinross Gold.
Market Development and Price Movements
Gold Price: Between Record Highs and Corrections
- Record Highs: In recent weeks, the gold price reached new highs several times, exceeding 3,435 USD per ounce.
- Correction Zones: At the same time, there were significant pullbacks down to about 3,140 USD, highlighting the volatility in the market.
- Current Situation: In week 22, the price fluctuated around the important 20-day line, having previously tested the March high as support. The trading range remains between approximately 3,100 and 3,500 USD.
Technical Analysis
- Bullish Signals: After a successful test of the lower channel boundary, a bullish reversal followed – previous resistance zones are now serving as support, a classically positive signal for experienced traders.
- Breakout Potential: Experts see the next target zone around 3,370 to 3,375 USD (Fibonacci retracement). A breakout here could enable new records.
- Resistances/Supports: Important resistance levels are at the all-time high (ATH) around 3,500 USD; support zones are found at approximately 3,160–2,950–2,840–2,800–2,720–2,580 USD (December low).
Uncertainties vs. New Confidence
Uncertainties
- Volatility: The strong fluctuations between record highs and correction phases create uncertainty among investors.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Customs turbulence, geopolitical tensions, and interest rate expectations continue to influence investor behavior.
New Confidence
- Technical Strength: The price’s return above the important average line, as well as bullish chart formations, bolster confidence in the continuation of the upward trend.
- Demand & Investment Potential: Despite a significant price increase (+25% this year), analysts see further potential – especially since only about one percent of investors are currently invested.
Development of Major Gold Stocks
The stocks of large mining companies such as Barrick Gold, Newmont Corporation, Franco Nevada, and Kinross Gold tend to reflect the development of the precious metal price:
| Company | Characteristics | Relation to Current Market |
|---|---|---|
| Barrick | World’s largest producer | Benefits from high prices |
| Newmont | Largest publicly traded mine | Sensitive to price volatility |
| Franco Nevada | Royalty/streaming model | Less directly dependent on price |
| Kinross | Internationally diversified | Takes advantage of regional differences |
These companies generally benefit from rising or consistently high gold prices; however, their stock prices often respond more slowly or are less volatile than the spot price itself.
Outlook
For the coming week, a sideways movement within a broad range is expected – with possible weekly spans between approximately $3,190 to $3,380, or, depending on the scenario, significantly below or above.