This week, important economic data is in focus, including gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation figures, which are crucial for investors. Here is an overview of the current forecasts and trends:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Current Forecasts: The Deutsche Bundesbank has revised its forecasts for economic growth in Germany for 2025 downward. Instead of narrow growth, a calendar-adjusted stagnation of real GDP is expected for 2025. This means that economic growth in Germany will not pick up as anticipated this year.
Reasons for Stagnation: The Bundesbank attributes the higher US import tariffs and uncertainty regarding US economic policy as the main reasons for the downward revision. These factors particularly affect the German export economy, as they impair competitiveness in global markets.
Outlook for 2026 and 2027: Despite the current stagnation, the Bundesbank expects real GDP growth of 0.7 percent in 2026 and 1.2 percent in 2027. These forecasts are based on the assumption that expansive fiscal policy will support growth starting in 2026.
Inflation
Current Inflation Rates: The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) is expected to increase by 2.2 percent in 2025, representing a slight decrease compared to the previous year. In 2026, a decline to 1.5 percent is expected, while an increase to 1.9 percent is forecasted for 2027.
Influencing Factors: Inflation will continue to be influenced by factors such as energy and food prices. The HICP excluding energy and food shows a slightly higher rate, indicating ongoing demand and general price trends.
Outlook for Investors
Investment Decisions: Investors should consider the current forecasts and trends in their investment decisions. The stagnation of GDP in 2025 could lead to a cautious approach, while the positive outlook for 2026 and 2027 could make long-term investments in certain sectors more attractive.
Risks and Opportunities: The uncertainty due to US economic policy and trade tariffs remains a risk for the German economy. At the same time, the expansive fiscal policy starting in 2026 offers opportunities for growth and investments in particular industries.
Overall, the economic data this week is in focus as it will provide crucial insights into the future development of the German economy. Investors should utilize this information to adjust their strategies and respond to changing market conditions.