Weekly Outlook: Air for German Stocks Could Get Thinner
The current market situation for German stocks shows signs that the air could be getting thinner. This is due to several factors, including economic outlooks and economic conditions that are highly significant for private investors and savers.
1. Current Market Developments
- DAX Development: The DAX has performed strongly in 2025 so far, with a peak of 24,479 points in the previous week. However, the zone between 24,300 and 24,400 points seems to be a stubborn barrier that is difficult to overcome. By the end of May, the DAX stood at 23,997.48 points, representing an increase of about 1,500 points compared to the previous year.
- Trade Dispute and Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing trade talks between the USA and China, taking place in London, are an important factor for market development. These talks could ease the tariff conflict, which could positively affect the markets. However, such tensions often lead to increased uncertainty and volatility.
2. Economic Outlook
- Economic Conditions: The economic conditions play a crucial role in the development of the stock markets. Currently, there are signs of a weakening economy, which could impact the business cycle. This could influence the demand for stocks and make the air for German stocks thinner.
- Exchange Rates and Exports: Changing exchange rates can also affect returns in the German market. A strong euro could burden the export economy, which could negatively impact stock prices.
3. Investment Strategies
- Risk Management: Given the uncertainties, careful risk management is crucial for investors. This may mean diversifying the portfolio or investing in less volatile asset classes.
- Long-term Perspective: Despite short-term challenges, the long-term perspective for German stocks remains positive. Investors should focus on a long-term strategy and not be influenced by short-term market fluctuations.
4. International Comparisons
- US Stock Market: The US stock market is currently experiencing a quiet phase, but with the prospect of increased volatility in the coming quarters. The market is trading at a discount of only 3% to its fair value, indicating a neutral valuation level.
- European Markets: The DAX has performed better compared to European markets such as the STOXX Europe 600 in the first quarter of 2025. This could be attributed to the strong performance of German companies.
In summary, the air for German stocks could be getting thinner as economic and geopolitical factors influence the markets. Investors should focus on a long-term strategy and adjust their risk management to be prepared for possible market fluctuations.