The latest inflation data from the United States shows a moderate development that has been positively received by the markets. According to the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025, the CPI-U (for all urban consumers) rose by 2.3 percent year-over-year to an index level of 320.795 (base year 1982–84=100). Compared to the previous month, May recorded an increase of 0.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. The CPI-W, which applies to wage earners, increased by 2.1 percent to 314.243.
Development of Core Components
Particularly noteworthy is the development of certain components. Core inflation, which is calculated without food and energy, rose by 2.8 percent in the past year. The housing cost index experienced an increase of 4.0 percent, while medical care costs rose by 2.7 percent. The increase in auto insurance was especially strong, at 6.4 percent. Additionally, education costs increased by 3.8 percent and recreational activities by 1.6 percent.
Positive Effects on the Markets
These moderate inflation rates suggest a stabilization of price development in the U.S., without the risk of overheating the market. This is a positive signal for investors, as the Federal Reserve might cautiously shape its interest rate policy or even consider rate cuts, which would support the stock markets.
Progress in Trade Relations
Furthermore, there are positive developments in trade relations between the U.S. and China. A relaxation in the trade conflict could reduce uncertainties in the markets and strengthen investor confidence. Improved trade relations are particularly relevant for private investors as they can lead to better market sentiment and higher corporate profits, positively influencing stock prices.
Overall, these developments provide private investors with valuable guidance regarding potential returns as well as risks from inflation or protectionist measures.