Current Market Situation and Price Development
Copper Price Rises Despite Weak Economy: Despite global economic growth below expectations, a tense interest rate landscape, and only a timid recovery in China, the copper price has significantly risen for weeks. This is primarily driven by an emerging supply gap.
Price Development 2025: In June 2025, the copper price starts at around 4,627 USD per ton, decreases slightly by the end of the month, recovers minimally in July, and remains largely stable until August. In the fourth quarter, a gradual recovery is observed.
Inventories: Stock levels at the LME decreased in May while inventories at the SHFE increased. Currently, the market is well-supplied, but there is an oversupply situation.
Drivers Behind the Price Increase
Structural Supply Gap: The demand for copper is growing faster than supply due to megatrends such as the energy transition and electromobility.
Speculation and Political Factors: US tariff policy and speculation about increasing Chinese demand influence the price.
Supercycle Indicators: Experts are talking about the beginning of a supercycle with sharply rising raw material prices.
Outlook: Opportunities for Investors
Reevaluation Potential: Exploration companies could be reassessed as new mines are necessary to cover the projected deficit.
Medium-term Forecast: A stable to slightly positive trend is expected for the second half of the year; analysts see a movement towards $9,600 per ton.
Long-term Perspective: The unstoppable increase in demand is likely to continue supporting the price.
Summary
The current rise in copper prices is structural: A growing discrepancy between supply and demand creates investment opportunities and indicates a potential supercycle. Investments in exploration companies could be particularly lucrative.
For Investors, this means: Those investing in exploration companies or established mining firms could benefit from the upcoming supercycle.