Causes of the Oil Price Increase
- Direct Attacks on Oil Infrastructure: Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and military objectives, including a fuel depot in Tehran. Iran responded with counter-attacks. Such attacks increase the risk of a disruption in global oil supply.
- Market Uncertainty: Markets react nervously to any escalation in the oil-rich Middle East. Following the Israeli attack, crude oil prices surged significantly – reportedly by up to 12 percent within a day.
- Potential Expansion of the Conflict: Experts warn that further escalation or even a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices per barrel quickly above 100 US dollars.
Development of Oil Prices
- Short-term Fluctuations: Following Israel’s attack on June 13, 2025, the price for a barrel of crude oil rose sharply initially (up to 77 US dollars), but then slightly decreased (last reported around 74 US dollars). Nevertheless, this represents an increase of about 7.5 percent compared to the previous day – the largest jump since the onset of the corona crisis, according to Deutsche Bank.
- Long-term Perspective: Despite the current rise, prices remain below those of previous years: for instance, in 2022 the level was significantly higher than today. However, experts expect further price increases if the situation continues to escalate.
Impacts on Europe and Global Markets
- Energy Prices in Europe: Rising crude oil prices are expected to reflect at gas stations with a delay (usually within three days to a week). So far, there has been no massive spike in fuel prices, but further increases are anticipated.
- Inflation and Growth: A persistently high or rising oil price can drive inflation and slow down economic growth – particularly in energy-dependent economies like Germany and other European countries.
- Heating Oil Costs: Heating oil tanks will also need to be filled at higher costs; analyses currently recommend refilling before further possible price jumps.
Summary
The current conflict between Israel and Iran has already shown significant impacts on the global oil market: prices have surged, which is likely to result in higher energy, fuel, and heating oil costs in Europe in the medium term. If the situation further escalates or key transport routes are blocked, a “mega oil shock” with far-reaching consequences for economic growth and inflation worldwide looms.