Gold is currently experiencing a remarkable comeback as a safe haven, regaining significance in the context of global uncertainties and growing doubts about the US dollar as the leading currency. Developments in recent months show that both institutional investors and central banks are increasingly betting on gold.
Global Uncertainties and Demand for Gold
Global gold demand reached 1,206 tons in the first quarter of 2025, the highest level since 2016. The drivers of this development are primarily:
- Inflation: Persistent inflation concerns are causing investors to seek valuable assets.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Wars, trade conflicts, and regional crises increase uncertainty.
- Debt Problems: Over-indebted states and dwindling confidence in government bonds are significant issues.
- De-dollarization Trend: Many countries, especially emerging markets, are massively expanding their gold reserves.
Role of Central Banks
Central banks play a central role in the current gold boom:
- Emerging Markets: On average, they hold less than 15% of their reserves in gold.
- Strategic Diversification: Increasing reserves serves to protect against currency risks.
- Record Reserves: The ECB emphasizes that gold now accounts for around 20% of its asset reserves.
Performance of Gold Compared to Other Asset Classes
Since the turn of the millennium, gold has significantly outperformed the stock market (S&P 500), especially in times of crisis.
| Asset Class | Performance & Safety |
|---|---|
| Stocks | Growth potential, but volatile |
| Government Bonds | Low returns with high risk* |
| Fiat Currency | Inflation jeopardizes value retention |
| Gold | Value retention & crisis protection |
*Especially high risk in the case of over-indebted states.
Impact on Private Investors
Private investors may reconsider their investment behavior in light of these developments:
- Hedging Against Inflation and Crises: Adding precious metals to the portfolio is advisable.
- Diversification: A broader distribution reduces overall risk.
- Loss of Confidence in Traditional Assets: Savings accounts and fiat currency investments no longer guarantee value retention.
Conclusion: Is Gold Back as a World Currency?
Although a complete transition to a new world gold standard is unlikely, the current development reflects a loss of confidence in currency systems and underscores gold’s role as a stabilizing asset.