Gold Price Forecast: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Factors
The gold price has developed positively in recent months and is close to 3,400 USD per ounce. This development is significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Airstrikes on Israeli facilities have heightened uncertainty and prompted investors to invest in safe assets like gold.
Geopolitical Factors
- Middle East Conflict: Recent tensions in the Middle East, including airstrikes, have increased the demand for gold as a safe haven. In uncertain times, investors often seek safe havens to protect their wealth.
- Global Political Uncertainty: Geopolitical conflicts can undermine confidence in fiat currencies and increase demand for gold.
Economic Factors
- Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation remains above pre-crisis levels worldwide, making gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Interest rate decisions by central banks, such as the Fed, can also influence the gold price.
- Central Bank Purchases: Diversification of reserves by central banks, especially in emerging markets, could further increase demand for gold.
Forecasts for 2025
- Short-term Forecast: Wallet Investor predicts a moderate increase in the gold price for the remainder of 2025, with slight fluctuations.
- Long-term Forecast: Goldman Sachs expects a gold price of 3,700 USD by the end of 2025 and 4,000 USD by mid-2026. Other sources view a range of 2,800 to 3,200 USD for 2025 as realistic, driven by inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Technical Analysis
- Long-term Trends: Gold has been in a stable upward trend since 2018, supported by fundamental factors.
- Support Zones: Important support levels are at 2,200 USD and 2,500 USD, while resistance levels are at 3,200 USD, 4,000 USD, and 5,000 USD.
Overall, the gold price remains supported by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. The forecasts for 2025 are positive, expecting moderate growth. In the long term, the gold price could rise further due to ongoing inflation and central bank purchases.