Background and Risks
The renowned US economist and economic historian Adam Tooze has warned of the possibility of an oil price crisis if the current conflict between Iran and Israel escalates further. An escalation of this war could have significant impacts on global oil prices.
Iran has threatened to blockade the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial part of global oil exports is routed. A blockade or attacks on tankers could lead to widespread disruptions in the oil market.
Although Iran currently accounts for less than 2% of the global oil market due to sanctions, a disruption of its exports would still be felt dramatically—especially for China, which imports about 90% of Iranian oil. However, Russia is currently a more significant supplier to China than Iran.
A radical escalation could involve a direct attack by Iran on Saudi Arabia or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly intensify the Middle East conflict.
Current Situation
Since the recent Israeli attacks on Iranian territory in mid-June 2025, there have been rocket and drone strikes from both sides, as well as severe damage to Iranian nuclear facilities. Negotiations regarding the nuclear agreement between Iran and the USA are currently suspended.
Implications for Investors and Markets
An intensification of the conflict poses the risk of a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in oil prices. This could have far-reaching consequences for global markets and consumers worldwide and is therefore of great importance for investors and savers.
In summary, Adam Tooze sees an escalating conflict between Iran and Israel as a serious threat to a new global oil price crisis with potentially severe economic consequences.