Reasons for J.P. Morgan’s Warning
- Cooling of the US Economy: Despite currently solid labor market and corporate data, first cracks are showing behind the facade. The phase of stable growth could soon come to an end.
- Trade Policy Strain: New tariffs amounting to about a billion US dollars daily are increasingly having negative effects on the economy, the consequences of which could become visible by the third quarter of 2025 at the latest.
- Inflation Risks and Stagflation: A renewed rise in inflation or even stagflation is seen as a serious threat.
- Declining Employment Figures and Immigration: These factors can further burden economic growth.
Capital Outflow from the US since Donald Trump’s Presidency
Although no explicit mention of capital outflow since Trump’s term was found in the search results, it is known from economic analyses that political uncertainties and protectionist measures under Trump may have led to some capital being withdrawn from the US. This could be particularly relevant for investors in the German-speaking region, as they often diversify globally and thus need to pay closer attention to developments in the US.
Importance for Investors in the German-speaking Region
Since many investors from Germany, Austria, or Switzerland are heavily invested in US stocks or view them as an important part of their portfolios, underperformance of these stock markets could have direct effects on their returns. Additionally, rising interest rates in the range of 5.5 to 6 percent along with economic slowdowns could lead to strains on borrowers – another risk factor for investments.
In summary, J.P. Morgan warns of a rougher economic environment in the US with potentially weaker stock performance due to various macroeconomic risks such as trade conflicts, inflationary pressure, and structural challenges. For globally active investors – including many in the German-speaking region – this means increased caution in engagements in the US market.