A Warning from Adam Tooze
The US economist and economic historian Adam Tooze warns of a possible oil price crisis if the Iran-Israel conflict escalates further. Despite Iran’s insignificant role in the global oil market, with a share of less than 2%, Tooze sees high risks from a so-called “desperation act” by Iran under massive pressure.
Danger of Closing the Strait
One of the main scenarios Tooze fears is the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. This strategically important passage is crucial for about two-thirds of Saudi oil exports, as a large portion of oil from the Gulf states is transported through here. A blockade or attacks on tankers in this region could cause significant disruptions in the global oil market.
Attack on Saudi Arabia
Tooze also sees the danger that Iran, if unable to attack Israel with missiles due to Israeli missile defense systems, might instead target Saudi Arabia. Such an attack could have disastrous consequences for global markets and could trigger massive escalation.
Current and Potential Market Developments
Although the conflict has not yet caused significant price spikes in the oil market, the danger of extreme escalation remains, which is also of great relevance for private investors. About 90% of Iranian oil is exported to China; a disruption of Iranian exports could also lead to shocks there, despite other large suppliers like Russia.
In summary, the danger of a new oil price crisis strongly depends on whether there will be a blockade or military attacks. Private investors must prepare for increased risk in commodity markets, with potential for strong price fluctuations in oil.