The oil price has experienced a remarkable rally of about 40% since May 2025, triggered by the dangerous escalation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel. These geopolitical tensions lead to uncertainties in supply and drive prices up.
Impact on the Global Market and Energy Prices
The dramatic price increase has an immediate effect on the economic situation, as oil is a central raw material for energy supply and industry. In Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, this results in higher energy prices, especially for heating oil. For instance, the average heating oil price in Germany in May 2025 was about 95.84 cents per liter.
Despite the short-term price spikes, current forecasts anticipate moderate volatility for the remainder of the year. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between around 63 to 69 US dollars per barrel. Some analysts even expect a decline in oil prices towards the end of 2025, as increased production levels by OPEC+ (411,000 barrels per day more) could raise market supply and thus have a deflationary effect on prices.
Relevance for Savers and Investors
For consumers, the increase means higher costs for fuels and heating oil, which can further drive inflation. Investors should act cautiously given the volatile situation in the oil market; short-term gains are possible, but setbacks due to political developments or changes in supply cannot be ruled out. Long-term forecasts indicate sideways movement, with limited volatility; dramatic price crashes are currently not expected.
In summary, the current escalation in the Middle East has triggered a strong oil price increase since May, with noticeable effects on energy prices in Central Europe. At the same time, market forecasts for the rest of the year indicate some calming with moderate volatility due to increased production levels from OPEC+, which could have a deflationary effect in the medium term. For consumers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, this currently means higher energy costs and uncertainty in the markets for savers and investors.