The ongoing decline of the US dollar and related macroeconomic uncertainties have led analysts to predict a possible “super rally” for gold in autumn 2025. This assessment is based on several factors affecting both short-term market dynamics and long-term structural trends.
Background: US Dollar Weakness and Macroeconomic Risks
- US Dollar Depreciation: The US dollar is in a downward spiral, which traditionally has positive effects on the gold price. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international investors, thereby increasing demand.
- Economic Uncertainty: Analysts from Bank of America Global Research warn of a possible breaking point for the US economy as early as summer 2025. Should there be a sudden downturn in the labor market or declining corporate investments, it could trigger an aggressive interest rate-cutting policy by the Federal Reserve – projected by up to 75 basis points before the year ends.
- Inflation and Interest Expectations: The prospect of falling interest rates alongside high inflation enhances the appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation.
Forecasts for the Gold Price
- Potential Super Rally: Some analysts see the potential for a significant increase in the gold price in autumn 2025, targeting a price of up to $3,600 per ounce.
- Historical Parallels: During periods of economic uncertainty, weak currencies, and expansive monetary policy, gold has regularly proven to be a safe haven.
- Investor Interest: The combination of dollar weakness, looming recession, and inflationary pressure makes gold particularly attractive for investors seeking protection.
Other Relevant Market Trends
- Commodity Markets in General: Other commodities such as copper are also benefiting from similar macroeconomic developments. Goldman Sachs, for instance, predicts a price increase for copper to around $10,050 per ton next year.
- Cryptocurrencies as an Alternative? Despite positive forecasts for Bitcoin (currently over $100,000), gold remains a preferred shield against currency risks and inflation due to its historical stability.