Current Situation of Customs Conflicts
The USA has presented a new offer to the EU in the trade dispute, which is viewed as a step towards de-escalation. However, the President of the EU Commission emphasizes that all options remain on the table. This signals a willingness to negotiate and could reduce tensions.
In June 2025, there was a 90-day suspension of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. This temporary pause was positively received by the markets and provided relief in light of previously announced tariff increases.
Despite these positive signals, the situation remains volatile. Earlier announcements of tariff increases had already led to significant fluctuations in the stock markets. Although further escalations between the USA and China may still emerge, the suspension of tariffs at least temporarily opens up room for negotiation.
Impacts on the Markets
The prospect of de-escalation in the customs dispute positively affects stock prices. Investors respond sensitively to such political developments, as they can stabilize the global trade environment.
In phases of increased uncertainty due to trade tensions, there have been repeated spikes in volatility on the US stock market this year (VIX temporarily reached record levels), which unsettled investors. Positive news regarding progress in customs negotiations can lower this volatility.
In uncertain times, value stocks become increasingly important as a stability anchor in portfolios. A calming of the customs conflict could therefore also strengthen interest in growth-oriented stocks.
Conclusion
The recent positive news regarding customs conflicts – such as the new US offer to the EU and the temporary suspension of tariffs on major trading partners – create favorable conditions for rising stock markets. Such developments are highly relevant for investors, as they directly contribute to improving market sentiment and may potentially enable new record levels. However, caution is warranted due to possible further escalations, especially between the USA and China.
Overall, these signals suggest that positive progress in international trade talks could provide strong impulses for the capital markets in the short term.