Current Market Situation and Development
The stock markets show surprisingly strong performance in 2025, despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. These geopolitical tensions have so far not caused any noticeable weakness in price development, keeping the markets stable and even contributing to a potential record sentiment.
- The US stock market is currently trading at a discount of only about 3% to its fair value, which historically represents a neutral valuation level. Despite the risks, the market is currently assessed as calm, although increased volatility is expected in the coming quarters.
- While US markets are experiencing losses from the perspective of European investors due to the weak dollar (S&P 500 and NASDAQ both down about 7%), non-US stocks are performing very well. For example, Greek stocks rose over 40%, Spanish securities increased by 24%, and other Southern European markets like Portugal and Italy achieved double-digit gains.
- The stability of the markets despite global uncertainties such as trade conflicts or military confrontations is also reflected in the first progress in customs negotiations between the UK, China, and India, contributing to a calming effect. Nevertheless, volatile phases are to be expected until new trade structures are clearer.
Conclusion
The stock markets have thus far reacted little to the conflicts in the Middle East and remain surprisingly robust. This resilience supports investor confidence and could, in combination with other positive factors, lead to record levels. However, given global risks, caution is still advised, as increased volatility cannot be ruled out.