Forecasts from Leading Financial Institutions
The prospect of a further significant rise in the gold price to as much as $4,000 per ounce or even higher is currently being intensely discussed by several major financial institutions and experts.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price will rise to about $3,700 by the end of 2025, with a possible increase to $3,880 in the event of a recession in the U.S. In an even riskier scenario, gold could even reach $4,500, which would mean a return of over 70%. The reasoning behind this is primarily that investors will increasingly use gold as a diversification strategy, especially when traditional hedges like U.S. Treasury bonds underperform during stock downturns.
J.P. Morgan also expects an increase in the gold price to an average of around $3,675 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and sees the possibility of exceeding the $4,000 mark in their baseline scenario. This forecast is based on geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China as well as rising recession risks.
Additionally, other analyst firms have also raised their price targets: Citi Research has already increased its short-term target to around $3,500 due to increased buying by Chinese insurers and safe-haven demand in light of global tariff risks.
Reasons for the Rally
The background for this rally, in addition to geopolitical crises, is the increasing global debt as well as the growing distrust in government bonds as a safe haven – a situation that is increasingly directing capital into physical gold and gold-based ETFs.
However, some AI-based predictions for the year overall indicate rather moderate price targets between about $2,700 and just under $4,000 per ounce by year-end, suggesting that despite optimism, there are also uncertainties.
For Private Investors
For private investors and small investors, this means:
- A further significant increase in the price of gold is possible by the end of the year.
- Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are driving demand for safe investments.
- The threshold of around $4,000 per ounce is considered a realistic target, especially if negative economic scenarios materialize.
- Investing in physical gold or gold-related financial products can therefore be seen as a hedge against inflation, currency risks, and market volatility.
Overall, current analyses support the notion that the rally in gold prices will continue – exceeding the $4,000 per ounce mark seems quite possible in light of the existing assessments.