This week, investors in the USA and German-speaking regions are particularly focused on the minutes of the FOMC meeting from June 17/18, 2025, which will be released on July 9. This document is of high interest as it provides insights into the discussions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve and can offer indications regarding future interest rate policies.
Current Interest Rate and Expectations
The current US key interest rate is in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. At the last meeting on June 18, a pause in rate adjustments was decided, with the Fed emphasizing that it will continue to monitor data carefully to achieve its goals of maximum employment and inflation control with a target of 2%. The likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting at the end of July is currently estimated at about 65%.
Global Implications
For investors in the German-speaking region, this information is particularly relevant as US interest rate policy has global implications and affects capital flows as well as exchange rates. Additionally, new members with a generally restrictive stance have strengthened the FOMC, which could lead to more intense debates over monetary policy direction.
Moreover, the Fed is planning a review of its monetary policy framework this year – a significant event for future strategies and instruments to manage the economy.
- Publication of FOMC minutes: July 9, 2025
- Next FOMC meeting: July 29/30, 2025, interest rate decision around 20:00 CEST
The minutes provide important hints on how the Fed assesses future interest rate decisions, what risks it perceives, and how it reacts to current economic developments. Investors should carefully analyze whether signals for further rate increases or cuts emerge from the minutes – which could have significant impacts on financial markets worldwide.