A Looming Decline in the S&P 500
The warning from Stifel about a double-digit decline in US stocks in the second half of 2025 is highly relevant for private investors. A significant drop in the S&P 500 is expected, attributed to several crucial factors.
The Role of Donald Trump’s Tariff Offensive
A key aspect that could lead to market uncertainties is Donald Trump’s tariff offensive. An escalation of trade conflicts could unsettle the markets, thereby negatively impacting stock prices.
Monetary Policy Uncertainties from the Fed
Additionally, there are concerns regarding the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Possible interest rate hikes or more restrictive measures could further burden the market environment and lead to increased volatility.
For private investors, this means they should prepare for a potentially very uncertain market environment. A more defensive positioning of the portfolio may be necessary to cushion losses. This warning underscores the importance of closely monitoring political and economic developments in the US.