Donald Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on copper imports to the USA has significantly influenced the copper price and could lead to a new record high. This development is of high significance for investors in the commodity market, as it has substantial impacts on the global copper market.
Background of Price Development
The copper price has increased significantly in recent months, particularly at the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex). Following Trump’s announcement, the price for a pound of copper briefly rose to $5.70, which represents a record high and is about 30% higher than the price at the London Metal Exchange (LME). These price discrepancies are unusual, as copper is typically traded at similar prices on both exchanges.
Effects of the Tariffs
The proposed tariffs could further drive up the copper price, as they would raise the cost of copper imports to the USA. This could lead to a shortage of the metal in the US market, which in turn could further increase prices. The US government aims to strengthen the domestic copper industry with the tariffs, but this requires lead time and long-term planning certainty to increase production.
Forecasts for the Copper Price
Analysts expect further price increases, especially given the tense global market conditions. Goldman Sachs predicts that LME prices could rise to approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 before falling back below $10,000. LongForecast also forecasts a strong upward trend for 2025, with a peak of $5,212 in December.
Importance for Investors
This development is of great importance for investors in the commodity market, as it entails significant opportunities and risks. A rising copper price can lead to high returns but also carries the risk of volatility and potential price declines. Therefore, investors should closely monitor market conditions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Long-term Perspectives
In the long term, the copper price could continue to rise, especially if demand for this metal increases due to trends such as electrification and the development of renewable energies. Forecasts for 2030 suggest possible prices between $10,756 and $14,341, depending on various scenarios.