The silver price recently reached a 13-year high of about 37.82 US dollars per ounce, representing a significant market development in the commodity sector. This rally was fueled by political tailwinds and strong demand. A few weeks ago, silver marked a significant breakout above its long-standing resistance at 35 US dollars and then quickly rose.
Forecasts and Demand
The Swiss banking giant UBS continues to forecast rising silver prices for 2025, with a potential increase to up to 40 US dollars per ounce in the coming months. The main drivers cited are sustained demand as an alternative to the US dollar, strong inflows into ETFs, and a weaker dollar. Additionally, there is a structural supply deficit: global demand for silver is estimated at around 1.2 billion ounces, while the supply is only about 1.05 billion ounces—this would be the fifth consecutive year of deficit with a shortfall of around 149 million ounces.
Role of the Gold/Silver Ratio
The gold/silver ratio has fallen due to the strong rise in silver and currently stands at about 89. A further decline in this ratio could enhance the attractiveness of silver compared to gold.
Opportunities for Investors
For private investors and savers, this development represents an interesting opportunity: the combination of political tailwinds, macroeconomic factors such as potential interest rate cuts in the US, and the supply deficit suggests a continued positive price development for the commodity silver. The market remains volatile due to its relatively small size and offers opportunities for investors interested in precious metals as a hedge against inflation or diversification of their portfolios.
In summary:
- Current silver price: approx. 37.8 USD/ounce (13-year high)
- UBS Forecast: up to approx. 40 USD/ounce in the remainder of the year
- Drivers: Political tailwinds, ETF inflows, weak dollar
- Fundamental Basis: Supply deficit for five years
- Market Significance: High relevance for private investors as an alternative to gold and inflation hedge
These factors make the recent rally in silver futures at COMEX particularly relevant for investors in the commodity sector.