The world’s largest chemical company, BASF, has significantly lowered its profit forecast for the year 2025. Instead of the originally anticipated range of 8.0 to 8.4 billion euros in EBITDA before special items, BASF now predicts only between 7.3 and 7.7 billion euros – a reduction of up to 900 million euros.
Causes of the Forecast Revision
This adjustment is primarily due to ongoing macroeconomic weaknesses and geopolitical uncertainties. In particular, the weakening global economy, stagnating industrial production, and new U.S. tariffs are putting significant pressure on the company’s business environment. The economic situation in Germany is also having a negative impact.
Current Numbers and Reactions
In the second quarter of 2025, BASF was able to meet analysts’ expectations with an operating result (EBITDA before special items) of around 1.77 billion euros. However, EBIT was significantly below expectations at approximately 0.49 billion euros.
For investors, this profit warning means increased uncertainty: the stock price has already reacted with a decline to around 42.71 euros (-2.69%). Analysts are divided: while some recommend buying with an average target price of about 49.25 euros (with a potential upside of around +13%), others advise caution or even selling.
Industry Trend and Impact
Additionally, a similar trend is evident among other German chemical giants like Covestro: there, too, the profit forecast has been revised downward due to the weak economy, highlighting the pressures on the industry as a whole.
Overall, BASF’s forecast reduction signals a challenging outlook for the chemical sector in the current year due to global economic and political risks as well as trade barriers from tariffs. This has direct implications for investor sentiment and market performance in the industrial stocks sector.