Introduction
Oil prices continued their upward trend at the beginning of the week, significantly influenced by the anticipated new sanctions against Russia. These geopolitical tensions create uncertainties in the market that drive prices up. Currently, the crude oil price stands at approximately $67.50 per barrel (as of July 13, 2025).
Geopolitical Influences on Oil Supply
Sanctions against Russia, one of the largest oil producers worldwide, could significantly squeeze oil supply. This prospect of supply shortages enhances volatility in the markets. At the same time, other geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East (e.g., Israel-Iran), increase the likelihood of short-term price surges.
Market Forecasts
Despite the recent price increases, market analysts expect an overall volatile development for the remainder of 2025. Price forecasts vary widely: some expect a moderate decline to $55 to $60 per barrel, caused by oversupply and weak demand. Others predict an increase above $70, driven by geopolitical risks and rising demand in Asia.
Investment Strategies
Investors face the following challenges and opportunities in this situation:
- Short-Term Opportunities: Profits from price increases due to expansions of political tensions.
- Risks: High volatility and uncertain global supply situation.
- Long-Term Trends: The impact of the transition to renewable energies and decisions by OPEC+.
Overall, the current developments surrounding sanctions against Russia are a decisive factor for the recent rise in crude oil prices, with far-reaching implications for energy prices and market conditions.