S&P 500: Mixed Outlook for the Second Half of 2025
The S&P 500 recently reached an impressive record high, but the outlook for the second half of 2025 is marked by uncertainties. Different analyst opinions lead to a divided picture of future market developments.
Optimistic Assessment from Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for the S&P 500 and expects further gains. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts remain stable at +7% for 2025 and 2026. A crucial factor behind this optimism is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which are expected to begin in September 2025 and provide stimulus to market development.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs highlights three favored themes that investors should particularly pay attention to, although these are not specified in detail.
Warning of Risks from Stifel
In contrast, the investment firm Stifel sees the possibility of a double-digit decline in the S&P 500 by the end of the year. It cites a sharp decline in U.S. core GDP as the reason, driven by falling real incomes, lower investments, and weaker consumption. New political uncertainties, such as additional tariffs under a potential Trump administration, could exacerbate the situation.
In such a scenario, the Fed may be forced to pause its interest rate cuts.
Conclusion
Investors should remain vigilant during this volatile phase. Despite the current highs of the S&P 500, there is a risk of slowing growth and geopolitical tensions. Decisions from the Fed and political developments should be closely monitored to make informed investment decisions.