The announcement by US President Donald Trump to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports from the EU starting August 1, 2025, has far-reaching implications for investors and markets – both in the USA and the German-speaking regions.
Background and Objectives
Trump justifies the measure by the ongoing trade deficit of the US with the EU and national security concerns. He sees this as a threat to national security and demands more reciprocity in trade relations. The tariffs affect not only the EU but also Mexico; copper imports are even subject to a 50 percent surcharge.
Direct Effects on Markets
Price Effects
- Imported Products: Prices for European goods are expected to rise significantly for US consumers, as companies often pass on the additional costs.
- Exporting Companies: European exporters may lose market shares or see their margins shrink.
Trade Volume
- Decline in Trade: Higher tariffs typically lead to a decrease in bilateral trade volume between the affected regions.
- Shifting Supply Chains: Companies may attempt to adjust their supply chains or explore alternative markets.
Inflation
- USA: Rising prices for imported goods could contribute to inflation.
- EU/German-speaking Region: A decline in exports may slow down economic growth and indirectly affect price levels, especially if European companies face revenue losses.
Impact on Investors and Savers
Stock Markets
- European Export Companies (e.g., automotive industry): Price losses are likely, as profits are pressured.
- US Companies with Significant Presence in Europe or Dependence on Imported Components: Negative effects are also possible here.
Currencies
- EUR/USD Exchange Rate: The Euro could come under pressure if investors expect a weakening of European exports.
Inflation-Protected Securities
- Inflation-protected securities (e.g., inflation-indexed government bonds) could gain in attractiveness if inflation accelerates.
Countermeasures and Political Response
The EU has so far refrained from countermeasures but is preparing possible retaliatory tariffs – for example, on US automobiles, airplanes, or medical devices. Should these be implemented, a further escalation in transatlantic trade is threatened.
Conclusion for Private Investors
Private investors should be aware:
- Sectoral Risks: Particularly export-oriented industries such as automotive or machinery are at risk.
- Portfolio Diversification: Broad diversification across different regions and sectors can help mitigate risks.
- Monitoring Political Developments: The further development heavily depends on the course of negotiations between the EU and the USA. A failure could trigger further market turbulence.
Overall, Trump’s announced tariffs significantly increase the potential for economic uncertainty – both for consumers and investors in the German-speaking region.