Development of US Consumer Prices in June 2025
Consumer prices in the USA rose for the second consecutive month in June 2025. The inflation rate stood at 2.7% compared to the same month last year – the highest value since February of this year. In May, the rate was 2.4%. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3%, representing the strongest rise in five months.
Drivers of Price Increase
The greatest price pressure was observed in housing costs (+0.2%) and gasoline (+1%). The so-called core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 2.9%, after being unchanged at 2.8% for three months – the lowest annual value since 2021. However, the monthly core inflation of +0.2% remained below the expectations of +0.3%.
Background and Economic Policy Significance
Political Measures
Many economists warn of an inflation increase caused by tariffs. US President Trump recently imposed tariffs on several countries and announced further measures – also against the EU. Such protectionist steps can increase import costs and thus create additional inflationary pressure.
Impact on Monetary Policy
A sustained or further increase in price pressure raises the likelihood of a more restrictive monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Higher interest rates could follow to combat inflation.
Implications for Private Investors and Savers
Interest Rates & Bonds
Rising inflation expectations often lead to higher yields for government bonds, as investors demand compensation for the loss of purchasing power. This puts pressure on existing bond prices.
Stock Markets
Inflation fears can weigh on stock markets: Companies are faced with rising costs; moreover, higher interest rates could increase the cost of loans and slow economic growth.
Inflation Forecasts & Expectations
Short-term inflation expectations of US consumers slightly decreased to 3% in June after being at 3.2% in May – a five-month low. However, analysts expect a stabilization or even a slight rebound in forecasts to around 3.1% by the end of the quarter in the medium term.
Comparison: Germany vs. USA
Country | Inflation June (Year/Year) | Core Inflation | Main Drivers |
---|---|---|---|
USA | +2.7% | +2.9% | Housing Costs/Gasoline |
Germany | +2% | n/a | Services |
Conclusion
The renewed increase in consumer prices in the USA not only increases the short-term pressure on policy and the central bank to combat inflation through possible interest rate hikes. For private investors, this means increased uncertainty regarding future returns on fixed-income securities and stock markets. At the same time, decreasing short-term inflation expectations indicate some easing; however, vigilance remains necessary in the medium term – especially in light of protectionist trade measures such as new tariffs.