The annual inflation rate in the USA reached 2.7% in June 2025, an increase from 2.4% in May and the highest value since February 2025. This met analysts’ expectations and has significant implications for investors. Inflation is closely tied to interest rates and the monetary policy of central banks, which is why an increase could potentially lead to a more restrictive monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes.
Price Development in Detail
A closer look reveals that prices for food rose by 3% (up from 2.9% in May), transportation services by 3.4% (up from 2.8%), and used cars and trucks by 2.8% (up from 1.8%). Although energy prices overall fell (-0.8% compared to -3.5% in May), gasoline (-8.3%) and heating oil (-4.7%) decreased less sharply, while natural gas prices remained high at +14.2%.
Furthermore, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3%, marking the largest increase in five months. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, slightly increased to 2.9% but remained below the forecasts of about 3%.
Inflation Expectations and Market Outlook
Despite these developments, US consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell to around 3% in June. This is a decline from the previous month, indicating a degree of cooling in market expectations. This data is crucial for investors assessing future interest rate developments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
In summary, the inflation trend mid-year signals a slight acceleration of price increases in the USA, with possible consequences for monetary policy and the financial markets.
Summary of Data
| Indicator | Value June 2025 | Value May 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Inflation Rate | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| Monthly CPI Increase | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Core Inflation (annual) | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Consumer Inflation Expectation Next Year | about 3% | about 3.2% |