Accelerated Inflation in the USA in June 2025
The preliminary figures for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2025 indicate an acceleration of inflation to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May. This represents the highest level since February 2025 and slightly exceeds expectations.
Monthly Changes and Causes
The monthly change in the CPI is reported as an increase of about 0.3%, marking the strongest growth in five months. This increase is largely driven by higher import costs resulting from newly imposed tariffs, particularly affecting furniture, toys, recreational goods, and automobiles. The recent rise in gasoline prices also contributes to the inflationary trend.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise to about 3% annually, after three months of hovering around 2.8% – the lowest level since 2021. On a monthly basis, the core rate is also projected to increase by approximately 0.3%.
Implications for Monetary Policy
This development heightens concerns about persistently rising inflation in the USA and could have significant implications for monetary policy. Particularly in light of President Trump’s tariff threats, the independence of the Federal Reserve is under pressure; rising inflation rates could lead to a more restrictive interest rate policy.
In comparison, in Germany, the inflation rate in June was +2.0%, primarily due to falling energy prices and slowed food price increases contributing to a slight easing. In contrast, the US data signals a renewed acceleration.
In summary: The current US CPI data suggests a continuing inflationary trend with a notable spike in June, triggered by tariff impacts and increased energy prices. This is likely to draw attention from both investors and central bankers alike.