The latest data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the USA signals rising inflation in June 2025. Forecasts indicate an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to rise from 2.8% to 3% YoY.
Influences on Inflation
The rise in inflation is significantly influenced by tariffs. While their effects were marginal in May, they now show clear traces in prices. Service prices are contributing to inflation at about 3.6% annually, and food prices are also rising disproportionately. Conversely, energy prices are falling by about 3.5%, which, however, does not significantly diminish the overall effect.
Response of the US Federal Reserve
For the Federal Reserve (Fed), these inflation data are significant: the current inflation rate remains above the target value of 2%. This reinforces the Fed’s cautious stance regarding interest rate increases. Its preferred inflation indicator, the PCE index, has also increased – from 2.1% to 2.3% year-on-year – signaling a continuation of inflation.
Consequences for Investors
These developments are particularly significant for investors in the German-speaking region:
- A rising inflation level in the USA could lead to higher interest rates.
- Higher interest rates can affect global capital markets and the EUR/USD exchange rate.
- Investors should pay attention to volatilities and adjustments in bond, stock, and currency markets.
Overall, the US CPI data for June confirms an acceleration of inflation to around 2.7% YoY. This creates a challenging environment for monetary policy and markets, and remains a central factor for global financial markets. From a European perspective, it is important to closely monitor these developments.