Market Development and Drivers
The gold price reached historical highs in 2025 with over 30% gains (as of May: approx. 3,230 USD/ounce). The main drivers of this development are geopolitical tensions, destabilizing markets due to Trump’s tariff policy with punitive duties of up to 145% against China. In addition, the weakness of the US dollar increases the attractiveness of gold-backed investments. Furthermore, ESG regulations hinder production expansion, while central bank purchases, especially from emerging markets, are on the rise.
Mining Stocks vs. Physical Gold
Despite the ongoing gold boom, many mining stocks such as Barrick or Newmont only show moderate price gains. This is due to rising costs for energy and wages which pressure margins, as well as production declines as many mines struggle with decreasing output and difficult exploration conditions.
Profit Strategies for Investors
ETFs as a Core Investment
Gold mining ETFs offer a cost-effective way to invest broadly in the industry and reduce individual risks, which is particularly important given the volatility of individual stocks.
Specialized Explorers with Acquisition Potential
Junior mines like Tocvan Ventures are in the spotlight due to excellent drill results and acquisition fantasies from large corporations seeking to improve their reserve situation.
Technology-Driven Producers
Innovative mining methods such as bioleaching could become game changers as prices rise, making it worthwhile to take a look at niche players with patented technologies.
Risk Assessment and Outlook
Analysts consider short-term corrections (around 10% decline) possible, but the structural upward trend remains intact. Goldman Sachs even forecasts a price of 3,500-4,000 USD/ounce in the medium term, driven by institutional demand and de-dollarization developments in emerging markets. Thus, for risk-conscious investors, attractive entry opportunities arise during downturns, especially among undervalued mid-tier producers with untapped exploration potential.